- Oil products consumption in India was very robust during November 2025 to total 21.3 KT (5.7 MMBD), an increase of 5.5%, m-o-m and 3.0%, y-o-y. Among the major products, gasoil saw a big jump of 12.2%, m-o-m and 4.7%, y-o-y as the market continues to get the support from goods and services tax (GST) cut.
- Considering the winter seasonality, we do expect the demand to stay solid over the next three months. However, as the November figure was too high, we also expect slight downward correction over the coming months. Our forecast for December 2025 and January 2026 suggests oil products demand in India to be around 20.9 KT and 20.4 KT respectively.
- As per the latest available data from PPAC, overall refinery runs in India averaged 5.5 MMBD during November, an increase of 2%, m-o-m. Our forecast suggest refinery runs in the country to stay strong till February 2026 to meet the winter seasonal demand. Overall refinery runs are projected to average 5.6 MMBD and 5.7 MMBD in December 2025 and January 2026 respectively, translating into an average utilization rate of 109% for the next two months.
- Among the major refiners, BPCL posted the biggest monthly increase (by 11%) in refinery runs to average 0.9 MMBD, followed by HPCL (7%) and Reliance (6%). There are no major maintenance planned over the short-term and therefore refiners would maintain their strong runs.
- HMEL is reported to have shutdown at its Bathinda refinery, starting November, for around 40 days. Consequently, its refinery runs during November came down by a sharp 58%, m-o-m, to average 108 MBD. The impact of shutdown on December refinery runs is unlikely to be so big.
- Nayara has also decided to postpone maintenance work at its Vadinar oil refinery from February 2026 to April 2026.
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