Key Trends Shaping India’s Oil Market – February 2026 (Newsletter)

Petrochemical Expansion

  • BPCL has signed a non-binding MoU with Rossari Biotech Limited, a leading Indian specialty chemicals manufacturer, at India Energy Week 2026. The potential partnership is aligned with BPCL’s upcoming refinery–petrochemical complex at Bina, Madhya Pradesh, which is expected to significantly enhance BPCL’s petrochemical footprint.1
  • The India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is projected to significantly enhance India’s chemicals exports to the EU particularly for organic chemicals, specialty chemicals, and related products like generics.2
  • India’s chemical sector must undertake structural shifts to move up the global value chain, as per Ramya Bharathram, managing director and chief financial officer of Thirumalai Chemicals and president of the Indian Chemical Council.3
  • Andhra Petrochemicals continues to keep its plant operations closed due to low product profits and increased imports affecting the petrochemical sector. The company has completed important maintenance work during this operational pause, maintaining facility readiness for future operations when market conditions improve.4
  • Engineers India Limited (EIL), in collaboration with GAIL (India), has achieved a major milestone with the successful commissioning of the 60 KTPA Polypropylene (PP) Project at GAIL’s Pata Petrochemical Complex. The commissioning marks a significant step forward in strengthening India’s rapidly expanding petrochemical ecosystem.5

Digitalization

  • AI-enabled finance is helping oil and gas companies unlock liquidity, reduce DSO, resolve disputes faster and accelerate cash flow in volatile markets.6
  • ONGC has announced the go-live of Pragya-AIX, its groundbreaking Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Exchange. This marks a significant leap in digital transformation for the company, integrating over 26 intelligent applications into a single, unified digital platform.7

Electric Vehicles (EVs) Penetration

  • India’s electric vehicle sector attracted INR2,23,119 crore (US$25.6 bn) capital inflows over the past five years (2020-25), which is only about 18% of the total INR12,50,000 crore investment needed to meet the 2030 electrification target, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).8
  • India’s EV market is expected to cross 200,000 units in FY26, with penetration holding steady at around 4%–5%of total car sales, as adoption in higher-priced segments remains strong and the industry seeks to unlock demand in the mass-market sub-INR12 lakh category, as per industry experts.9
  • Union minister HD Kumaraswamy Saturday said India’s EV market has grown at over 60% annually in the past six years, with registrations nearing 2 million units in financial year 2024-25. He added two-wheelers continue to drive mass adoption, while electric passenger vehicles, buses and commercial fleets are expanding steadily.10
  • Suzuki Motor has launched its maiden EV in India, offering customers a battery rental plan to lower upfront costs – a model previously provided only by SAIC Motor’s local venture. The e VITARA SUV, developed with Toyota under a global model-sharing partnership, has been built in India since August last year, with 13,000 units exported to 28 countries in 2025.11

Sustainability

  • India government has mandated the sale of petrol with up to 20% ethanol and a minimum Research Octane Number (RON) of 95 across all states and Union Territories from April 1, 2026. The central government can allow exceptions in special situations, for specific regions and for a limited time.12
  • The Economic Survey 2025-26 said India’s ethanol blending program is reshaping crop priorities, with farmers favoring maize over pulses and oilseeds, risking food security. Calling the current trends “early warning signals” the latest survey warns of increased dependence on edible oil imports.13
  • After grain-based ethanol makers, the sugar industry has now asked the government to increase ethanol blending with petrol to 27% (E27) under a roadmap after achieving 20% (E20) blending so that excess capacities in manufacturing of bio-fuels could be utilised.14
  • Ahead of the implementation of the commercial aviation industry-focused carbon emission reduction norms from January 2027, India is preparing to meet the internationally mandated obligations for adopting SAF. While the final modalities are being streamlined, the requisite feedstock and infrastructure is ready, say stakeholders.15
  • India’s NeuEN Green Energy (NGE) has offered the lowest-ever price of INR 279 per kg (US$3.08/kg) for the supply of green hydrogen to Numaligarh Refinery in Assam. Gaseous green hydrogen is required to be produced either through water electrolysis powered by renewable energy or through biomass processing.16

Gas Market Growth

  • Gujarat State Petroleum Corp (GSPC) has finalized a 10-year deal to buy 0.5 mtpa of LNG from German power and natural gas utility Uniper SE. Deliveries are scheduled to start January 2028 and would be received at LNG terminals on the west coast of India.17
  • The growing and complex grid demands a modern approach to manage gas flows in India. Market-Based Balancing (MBB) provides a solution by shifting balancing responsibilities from pipeline operators to market participants, promoting discipline, transparency, and efficiency.18
  • India could increase its purchases of LNG from the US if the fuel is made available at competitive and reasonable prices, according to the CEO of Petronet LNG. The statement underscores the importance of pricing in India’s energy sourcing decisions, even as the country continues to expand its natural gas consumption and diversify its supplier base.19
  • ONGC has signed a master regasification agreement (MRA) with Petronet LNG to enable spot LNG cargo unloading and regasification at the Dahej terminal. The MRA will remain valid for a period of five years, with a provision for further extension.20

For detailed analysis and outlook of India’s oil market, subscribe to our India Oil Market Report (IOMR). Write to us at contact@energygully.com.

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