Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) production in India is not keeping pace with the strength seen in overall petroleum product output. According to the latest PPAC data, ATF production stood at 1,255 KT in July, 11% lower y-o-y. Over January-July 2026, India’s ATF production totalled 8,653 KT, 13% lower compared with the same period last year. Based on refinery run rates and current fundamentals, we do not expect any major change in India’s ATF production trajectory in the near term. Production is likely to remain around 1,250-1,260 KT per month during August-September 2026.
ATF consumption in India, meanwhile, has remained healthy throughout 2026. Over January-July 2026, India’s ATF consumption has been 5,389 KT, 1.5% higher y-o-y. The key demand driver is resilient domestic air traffic. Between January and July, Indian airlines carried 98.7 million passengers on domestic routes, 0.4% higher y-o-y. Indian public-sector oil companies have also kept ATF prices for domestic airlines unchanged since April 2026 at around INR104.9/litre, helping to limit the impact on airfares and thus support domestic air travel.
Turning to international travel, passenger traffic on these routes has also recovered strongly from the lows seen during March-April 2026. In July 2026, Indian airlines carried 2.6 million passengers on international routes, significantly higher than the monthly average of around 1.8 million passengers recorded during March-April.
However, over January-July 2026, the total number of passengers carried by Indian airlines on international routes stood at 17.1 million, 17.2% lower y-o-y. This indicates that the Middle East conflict is still weighing on international travel, keeping traffic below pre-conflict levels. Against this backdrop, we expect only a modest improvement in India’s ATF consumption over the near term, with consumption projected at 747 KT in August and 735 KT in September.
India’s ATF exports, meanwhile, have remained weak since the beginning of 2026, with the Middle East conflict further limiting the scope for a recovery. Between January and July 2026, India’s ATF exports totalled 3,016 KT, 43% lower y-o-y. Lower domestic stock availability, combined with the government’s export duty on ATF, has kept India’s exports under pressure. We do not expect any significant change in ATF export volumes over the short term.
However, there is an upside risk to our export forecast. With exports remaining subdued, domestic ATF inventories could gradually improve over the coming months. If stock availability strengthens sufficiently, this could reopen the export window and provide some upside to India’s ATF exports later in the year.
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