India’s latest crude oil import figures clearly highlight that the country has been successful in diversifying its crude supplies. As per our estimates, India’s crude imports totalled 4.9 MMBD in July 2026, and we expect the import figure to be around 4.8 MMBD in August 2026. These figures represent an increase of 10% and 3%, respectively, compared to imports during the same period last year.
Moreover, over Jan-Aug 2026, India’s crude oil imports are expected to have averaged 4.9 MMBD, only slightly lower than 5.0 MMBD during the same period in 2025. So after witnessing a dip in March and April 2026, India’s imports have normalized for now.
The volume of Middle East crude coming to India is still much lower than the pre-conflict level. Only imports from the UAE have shown resilience. For instance, over Jan-Aug 2026, India’s crude oil imports from the UAE are expected to have averaged 558 MBD, compared to 521 MBD during the same period last year. Meanwhile, imports from Saudi Arabia over the same period have fallen from 742 MBD to 581 MBD. Crude oil imports from countries like Iraq and Kuwait have been only marginal since March 2026.
Interestingly, the volume of US crude oil coming to India has also come down since the conflict began. Over Jan-Aug 2026, India’s crude oil imports from the US have averaged 187 MBD, down from 345 MBD over the same period last year.
The key question, then, is who is filling the gap left by lower supply from the US and the Middle East? The answer is Russia. India’s crude oil imports from Russia have been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2026. As per DGCIS data, Russia accounted for around 48% of India’s crude oil imports in June 2026. Our estimates for July and August 2026 put this share even higher, at 57% and 53%, respectively. So almost half of India’s crude oil imports is currently coming from Russia.
Russia’s crude market share in India is rising despite the narrowing discount on Russian barrels. However, the greater concern in recent times is securing supply in the first place, especially for a country like India, which does not hold sufficient stocks. As per our calculations, India’s crude oil stocks stood at around 64 MMB at the end of July, enough to meet only 12-14 days of demand.
India’s normalcy in crude imports is also visible in the country’s refinery runs. Over Jan-Aug 2026, India’s refinery runs are expected to have averaged 5.4 MMBD, only slightly lower than 5.5 MMBD over the same period in 2025. Indian refiners have continued operating their plants above nameplate capacity. In August 2026, we expect overall refinery utilization to reach 102%.
In summary, India has been successful in diversifying its crude import mix, ensuring that its domestic market continues to function at near-normal levels.
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